Overview
GradOrNot is a decentralized prediction market protocol built on Solana, designed specifically for pump.fun tokens. It lets you bet on real outcomes — will a token graduate from the bonding curve? Will it hit a price target? Will it survive until a deadline?
Every market has two sides: YES and NO. You deposit SOL on the side you believe in. When the market resolves, the winning side splits the pot — with early bettors earning a conviction bonus.
All markets are fully on-chain via an Anchor smart contract. No centralized custody — your funds sit in a program-controlled vault until resolution.
Key Concepts
Markets
Each market is tied to a specific token and outcome type. It has an expiry, a collateral vault, and tradeable YES/NO shares.
Tokens
YES and NO tokens are SPL tokens you can buy, sell, and hold. Their price is determined by an on-chain virtual AMM. Payouts are based on your weighted deposit, not token count.
Resolution
Markets are resolved by a keeper (or anyone) after the outcome is known. The winning side claims the vault.
Claiming
After resolution, winners redeem tokens for their proportional share of the vault’s SOL, weighted by deposit timing (early conviction bonus up to 25%).